Star Warscollectiblespreorder guide

Star Wars Merch Preorders: Which Upcoming Filoni-Era Projects Are Worth Betting On (and Which to Skip)

ttends

2026-02-03

10 min read

Reacting to Forbes’ Filoni-era critique: which Star Wars preorders may rise, which to skip, and how to secure safe deals and refunds.

Quick hit: If you’re overwhelmed by Filoni-era merch preorders, read this first

Short version for collectors: Bet on preorders tied to proven characters and premium manufacturers (think Hot Toys, Sideshow, boutique steelbooks). Skip mass-market, high-run merch for unproven projects. Always preorder through a retailer with clear refund terms, pay with a protected method, and set alerts so you can cancel if hype collapses or a better edition drops.

Why this matters now — and why Forbes’ take should be a collector’s red flag

In mid-January 2026 the industry changed: Kathleen Kennedy left, Dave Filoni rose to co-president of Lucasfilm, and major outlets (including Forbes) published skeptical takes on the incoming slate. Critics argue the Filoni-era film list lacks clear tentpoles and contains several low-buzz concepts — exactly the sort of uncertainty that ripples into the collectibles market.

Forbes: The new Filoni-era list of Star Wars movies “does not sound great” — it raises red flags about audience reach and long-term value for merch. (Paul Tassi, Jan 16, 2026)

Translation for collectors: when the creative roadmap looks uncertain, merchandising strategies become riskier. Studios may cancel projects, delay release windows, or tie merch to streaming events with limited distribution. That unpredictability is how preorders you thought were sure bets can become illiquid items on the secondary market.

2025–2026 market context you need to use when evaluating preorders

Production acceleration, but more cancellations: Lucasfilm’s public push in late 2025 to accelerate releases means more projects in development, but also tighter schedules and a higher chance of retooling or canceling those without strong early traction.
Collectors reward scarcity and quality: After a cooling period in 2024–25, late-2025 data showed renewed demand for high-end, limited runs (premium figures, licensed statues) while oversupplied mass-market items often stagnated.
Streaming-first drops create last-minute merch moves: Filoni’s integrated live-action/animation strategy increases the likelihood of surprise trailers and limited-time drops — good for flash sellers and risky for preorders that lock buyers into versions that may be superseded.
Retailer reliability is everything: 2025 saw a small wave of preorders canceled or heavily delayed; buyers who used card protections or reputable stores fared best.

How to think about risk: a practical preorder risk checklist

Before you hit BUY on any Filoni-era preorder, run items through this quick scorecard. The more boxes you can check, the safer the bet.

Project visibility: Is the project officially announced by Lucasfilm/Disney with a release window? (Stronger)
Character power: Is it tied to a proven character (Mandalorian, Grogu, Ahsoka) or to a new, untested IP? (Proven = higher demand)
Manufacturer reputation: Is the product from Hot Toys, Sideshow, Gentle Giant, Hasbro’s premium lines, or an unknown vendor? (Trusted makers = safer investment)
Edition size & exclusivity: Limited numbered runs, retailer exclusives, or convention editions are more likely to appreciate than unlimited mass production.
Retailer policy transparency: Does the seller clearly state preorder payment timing, cancellation rules, and refund type (card refund vs store credit)?
Secondary market interest: Are similar items from prior eras re-selling well? (Look at Grogu/Baby Yoda trajectories from 2020 onward)
Price point vs production cost: Extremely low-priced “collector” items often flood the market; unusually high-priced, high-quality pieces are likely aimed at true collectors and often preserve value.
Supply chain signals: Do production photos, promo prototypes, or official manufacturer updates exist? Lots of official content signals follow-through.

Which Filoni-era projects are worth betting on (and why)

Rather than promise hard titles, we judge by categories and public signals. Use this as your decision framework when scanning preorders.

High-confidence bets

Mandalorian & Grogu–adjacent releases — Why: proven brand, cross-demographic appeal. What to buy: premium, limited Hot Toys/Sideshow figures, high-end statues, and early-run deluxe steelbooks or art prints. Actionable tip: the first wave of official collectibles tied to a theatrical push historically captures the most long-term interest.
Legacy-character tie-ins (e.g., Ahsoka universe items) — Why: characters with built-in TV fanbases translate into steady collectible demand. What to buy: variant exclusives and signed pieces from show talent; skip generic mass tees.

Mid-risk opportunities

New Filoni-era films with credible creative teams attached — Why: attached talent (well-known directors/actors) is a good signal, but box office and fan reaction are unknown. What to buy: limited editions from trusted manufacturers and a small number of mid-tier products you can flip if reception is poor.
Specialty retailer exclusives (small runs) — Why: exclusivity can drive secondary demand, but beware store-only versions that are easy to restock. What to buy: numbered editions or pieces with authentication certificates.

High-risk (skip or buy only for play-to-flip)

Mass-market, high-run preorders for unannounced or weakly promoted projects — Why: oversupply + low fan awareness = poor resale prospects. Actionable: skip these unless you want the item for personal use.
Unknown-brand merch tied to vague rumors — Why: claims of “limited” runs with no manufacturer history often end in canceled products or poor quality that tanks value.

Case study: What Grogu taught collectors (and how to apply it to Filoni-era drops)

When Grogu (a Filoni-era breakout character) surfaced in 2019–2020, demand for quality figures, plushes, and exclusive variants exploded. Premium manufacturers who captured likeness, detail, and cinematic packaging — then limited runs — saw sustained resale premiums. Lower-quality mass-market items flooded shelves and lost value fast. The lesson: character popularity + premium execution = long-term collector interest. Use that heuristic for Filoni-era projects now.

Where to preorder safely — retailers and what to look for

Trustworthy retailers reduce friction when projects change course. Below are reliable channels and the advantages each offers for preorder protection, plus what to check on their policy pages.

ShopDisney / Disney Store — Pros: official licensing, often first to sell exclusive event items; historically straightforward refunds. Check: whether refunds are issued to card or as store credit for canceled preorders.
Hasbro Pulse — Pros: collector-focused with early access drops and payment plan options; frequently transparent on delays. Check: Hasbro Pulse’s preorder guarantee and cancellation terms at time of purchase.
Sideshow / Hot Toys — Pros: premium manufacturers; limited runs are typical and secondary values can be high. Check: deposit rules, cancellation window, and how final balance is charged.
Entertainment Earth / BigBadToyStore — Pros: long-time retailers for preorders with solid customer service records. Check: whether your preorder is refundable and whether shipping is charged upfront.
Major retailers (Amazon, Target, Walmart) — Pros: wide reach, reliable fulfillment, and easy returns. Check: eBay (largest reach), Amazon pre-order price guarantee and when your card will be charged; Target/Walmart often accept returns but exclusives can be limited.
Authorized indie stores and local comic shops — Pros: sometimes carry store exclusives and can be easier to communicate with for refunds; good for community-based verifications. Check: deposit vs full payment and local cancellation policies.

How to protect every preorder: a step-by-step playbook

Verify the project — Confirm Lucasfilm/Disney has publicly announced the project and a production or release window before committing large sums.
Vet the maker — Prioritize Hot Toys, Sideshow, Gentle Giant, Hasbro’s premium lines; those makers have track records for quality and limited runs.
Read preorder terms — Locate “preorder,” “payment,” and “refund” sections on the retailer page. Note when charges occur and what type of refund is offered.
Pay with protection — Use a credit card with dispute/chargeback options or PayPal Goods & Services where available. Avoid wire transfers or direct bank payments for preorders.
Keep documentation — Save confirmation emails, order numbers, and screenshots of product pages and terms at checkout.
Set calendar alerts — Put release date plus a 30/60/90-day buffer on your calendar; this helps detect delayed shipments early so you can request refunds before the retailer ships or changes terms.
Track community signals — Join collector forums, Reddit (r/StarWarsCollecting), and manufacturer socials to watch for production updates or cancellation notices.

How refunds, cancellations, and delays usually play out — and how to win

Common scenarios and your move:

Retailer cancels the preorder: Most reputable retailers refund to card or issue store credit. If you paid with card and the retailer only offers credit, dispute with your card issuer if you prefer a cash refund.
Product is delayed multiple times: If you're no longer interested, request cancellation and refund. If retailer policy requires waiting, escalate with your card issuer after documented attempts to cancel.
Retailer ships a different product or lower-quality item: Refuse delivery and open a return; document condition with photos. For third-party marketplace sellers, use platform protections and open disputes quickly.

Where to flip, where to hold: secondary market playbook for Filoni-era items

Timing matters. Use this simple three-tier rule:

Flip fast (0–6 months) — Limited-run exclusives with immediate fan demand (convention exclusives, chase variants). Quick turnaround captures hype premiums.
Hold medium-term (6–24 months) — Quality figure lines tied to film releases; hold until the theatrical/streaming cycle stabilizes and primary market supply is clear.
Long hold (24+ months) — True collector-grade statues and numbered editions, especially those tied to iconic characters. These can appreciate over years.

Platforms to consider: eBay (largest reach), StockX (authenticity-verified but higher fees), Mercari and Facebook Marketplace (local pickup reduces shipping risk), and specialist auction houses for premium items. Always factor fees and shipping into expected profits.

Red flags that mean skip the preorder

Vague product pages with no official license info or manufacturer name.
Preorders requiring full, non-refundable payment for unannounced production runs.
Too-good-to-be-true exclusive claims with no certificate of authenticity.
Retailers with poor reviews on delayed preorders or opaque refund policies.

Practical checklist you can use right now (copy & paste)

Confirm the Lucasfilm/Disney announcement.
Note manufacturer and edition size.
Read refund/cancellation policy and when your card will be charged.
Pay with a protected method (credit card/PayPal).
Save order confirmations and product page screenshots.
Set alerts for production updates and release date changes.
Decide flip vs hold strategy before purchase.

Final verdict: Where to allocate your preorder dollars for Filoni-era Star Wars

If Forbes’ critique has you second-guessing the slate, treat that skepticism as a tool. Invest in quality, not quantity. Prioritize:

Premium figures and limited statues tied to proven characters (best long-term value)
Official retailer exclusives with clear limits and authenticated numbering (good mid-term flips)
Short, low-cost personal buys for fun items you aren’t banking on (enjoyment-first buys that don’t risk capital)

Steer clear of mass-market, vague, or unknown-brand preorders unless you’re buying purely for personal enjoyment. The Filoni era will produce must-have items — but it will also produce noise. Use process, not panic.

Actionable next steps — how to protect your wallet and still snag great deals

Sign up for retailer newsletters and set Google Alerts for “Filoni” + “preorder.”
Follow manufacturers (Hot Toys, Sideshow) and join their queue/lottery lists to access limited runs.
Use price trackers (Keepa/CamelCamelCamel for Amazon) and retailer release calendars so you can cancel or pivot if a better edition drops.
Pay with a credit card and take screenshots of every transaction and product page at purchase.

Want curated Filoni-era preorder alerts?

We’re compiling a weekly Filoni-era preorder roundup that flags certified limited runs, retailer refund clarity, and the top risky preorders to avoid. Sign up to get email alerts and a printable preorder checklist for collectors.

Closing — trust your collector instincts, back it up with process

The Forbes critique is a useful early warning: when a slate looks uneven, the merch market becomes a minefield. You can still win — by prioritizing quality manufacturers, clear retailer policies, and disciplined preorder practices. Buy what you love, protect how you pay, and plan when you’ll flip vs keep.

Call to action: Join our weekly deals list for Filoni-era preorder alerts and the exact refund policy notes you should screenshot before checkout. Stay ahead of the noise — and save smarter on the next big wave of Star Wars merch.

tends

Contributor

Senior editor and content strategist. Writing about technology, design, and the future of digital media. Follow along for deep dives into the industry's moving parts.